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A mere two months in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery berated him for missing a pass in behind. During that period, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were an indicator or the source for the side's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, though, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. As Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Serious Hopefuls?

This is a rather hard proposition to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding in many games, while the wins have accumulated.

Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side registered an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side who have just won a ten-match winning streak, they seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with two precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, curled right inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival the club have to face in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he resembled during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential England player.

This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.