A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
